Start with a bounded review window
Choose a recent period, such as the trailing 30 days, and define the intake sources included. A bounded review is easier to verify than an open-ended estimate.
Define a qualified opportunity before counting
Agree on service type, service area, contactability, and minimum context. Exclude spam, vendor outreach, duplicates, wrong numbers, and requests outside the company’s actual scope.
Classify the response evidence
For each qualified opportunity, record whether it was captured, acknowledged, assigned, accepted, contacted, and given a next-step outcome. Use “unknown” when records do not support a conclusion.
Separate observed facts from assumptions
Observed facts include timestamps, assigned owners, message delivery, call attempts, and recorded statuses. Assumptions include whether an uncontacted inquiry could have become a job and what that job might have contributed.
Use an explicit planning model
A useful model multiplies monthly qualified inquiries by an observed or assumed missed/stalled rate, then by a conservative recoverable percentage, then by the share of recovered inquiries expected to become paying jobs, and finally by estimated contribution per additional job. Label the result modeled opportunity contribution.
Show the break-even point
Divide monthly service cost by estimated contribution per additional job. This produces the number of incremental paying jobs required to cover the monthly subscription under the entered assumption. If contribution is zero, break-even is not achievable. Keep independently scoped setup cost separate.
Document uncertainty
State the review period, data gaps, excluded sources, qualification rule, conversion assumption, contribution definition, and confidence limits. Better evidence may lower the modeled number while making the decision more reliable.
The result supports planning, not a guarantee of recovery, revenue, profitability, or job volume.